Poll predicts Labour council wipe-out (Ha ha ha!)

SCOTTISH LABOUR are set to lose almost half of their councillors as well as the control of 12 local authorities next year, according to a new opinion poll. If the figures are reflected in May's council elections, First Minister Jack McConnell's party would only have a majority of seats in North Lanarkshire.

It would be Labour's worst result in a local authority election and signal the end of the party's domination of local government politics in Scotland. The figures are contained in a YouGov poll commissioned by the SNP. Around 1000 people were asked in November about their voting intentions for next May's council elections.

Alex Salmond's SNP polled 28%, up 4% from the last local authority election in 2003, while Labour slumped to 27%, down six points from three years ago.

The Liberal Democrats were shown to be up marginally to 16%, while the Conservatives were down 1% from 2003 to 15%. Another category, marked "Independent/Others", gathered 15% support. But it is the 5% swing away from Labour to the SNP that will worry election strategists in McConnell's party.

Labour were expecting to lose dozens of councillors next year because of the introduction of proportional representation, but a dip in the party vote would be a double disaster.
An analysis of the poll findings found that a 5% swing would result in a "near wipe-out" of Labour-held councils next year. Labour currently has more than 500 councillors and controls 13 of Scotland's 32 local authorities.

Such a result would see Labour lose overall control of 12 councils, including Glasgow, Edinburgh, South Lanarkshire and North Ayrshire. McConnell's party would have to consider forming coalitions with others if they still wanted to control these local authorities. Only North Lanarkshire would remain in Labour hands.

The SNP report claims the poll indicates a "revolution in Scottish local government bringing to an end decades of Labour domination". It adds: "Due to proportional representation and low Labour poll ratings Labour seem ready to crumble at local level."

Another YouGov question on the council election, this time based on those "certain to vote", was even better for the SNP.

The poll found support for the Nationalists at 30%, up 6% on 2003, while Labour trailed in second place at 26%, down seven points from three years ago.

If reflected in the council election result next year, the SNP would end up with 385 councillors, a gain of 211. Labour would be left with 319 local government politicians, down 190 from 2003. This would mean the Nationalists winning more council seats than Labour for the first time in their history.

The Liberal Democrats, on 14%, have been predicted to gain 18 council seats, while the Tories would lose two compared with the 2003 election.

The heavy losses have prompted Labour's local bosses to start coalition talks with other political groupings ahead of next year's poll.

Already the local parties in Edinburgh and Glasgow have reportedly been in talks with the Liberal Democrats to see if a post-election pact would be viable.

SNP leader Salmond said the poll was further evidence of a Labour meltdown in Scotland.
"One of the final bulwarks holding the Labour Party in Scotland together is their domination of local government. That now, too, is coming to an end. The very foundations of Scottish Labour are collapsing," he said.

A spokesman for Labour Party yesterday dismissed the local election poll: "The dogs in the street were laughing at the last discredited poll when it was published well before Labour's successful conference in Oban. It's time the Nationalists started publishing information like how they would pay for their wild spending pledges."

[That 'successful conference' would be the 'bash SNP' farce where Labour showed they didn't trust Jack McConnell and drafted in Tony Blair, England fan Gordon Brown and other True Brits to waffle a lot of utter cr*p about the prospects of an independent Scotland would it? Despite every other country managing their own independence, Labour's message is that Scots are uniquely incapable of running their own affairs and the sky will fall in with independence. If this is the best argument they can come up wth then the SNP must be rubbing their hands with glee. JOE]

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