Tories Will Prop up Union to their Last Gasp

Interesting article but dubious conclusions. Also why ignore the SSP and Solidarity? Either might do better than the discredited Tories. The SNP would be mad to get into bed with the Tories no matter what garbage they were spinning. The main hope for independence is if the Scottish parties can form a coalition.

We should ignore all the unionists, Lib Dems included, they are part of the problem not the solution. The Tories will of course prop up their fellow British right wingers in the Labour party and indeed they have already promised to do so. JOE

Tories could be saviours of the Union
Robert Kilgour (Herald)
December 27 2006

Could Scotland be hurtling towards independence by the backdoor? Could Tony Blair's much vaunted legacy be the break-up of the United Kingdom?

Could the three hundredth anniversary of the union of the parliaments in 2007 coincide with their final fracture? These are the crucial questions facing Scottish voters as we move inexorably towards the Holyrood elections in May.Scots are every bit as hacked off with Tony Blair and Labour as voters elsewhere in the UK, but unlike England, the main opposition party north of the border is the SNP. If opinion polls are anything to go by then the Nationalists look set to gain the most seats at next year's polls. They will still be far short of an overall majority and will be searching for coalition partners. [Not necessarily, according to the polls it's a lot closer than that and remember there are forty odd independence supporting MSP's at the moment. JOE]

The Greens, also tipped to do well, will be an obvious choice. They, too, favour independence and have already touted Robin Harper for ministerial office in an SNP/Green coalition. Even then, most [biased] political commentators doubt if Salmond and Harper could muster enough seats to form a majority government.

Meanwhile, the LibDems, although always quick to prostitute themselves to anyone offering them a seat at the top table, appear to be playing hardball with the Nats. Nicol Stephen has ruled out any coalition deal with Alex Salmond unless the SNP drops its manifesto pledge to hold a referendum on independence within 100 days of taking power at Holyrood. Needless to say, this has become a major obstacle to further talks, driving the LibDems back into the arms of their current bed-mates – Jack McConnell's motley Labour crew.

Although the LibDems are making their traditional anti-Labour noises as they attempt to define some wiggle-room between themselves and their coalition partners prior to the polls, this remains the most likely scenario. So, Scotland will find itself following the elections in May with the SNP and Greens confronting Labour and the LibDems, with neither having sufficient seats to form an administration.

Enter Annabel Goldie and the Scottish Tories who will, in these circumstances, hold the balance of power. But are they ready to shoulder such a responsibility? Certainly, the David Cameron effect has not filtered north of Manchester, and in Scotland, while opinion polls indicate that the majority would prefer him to Gordon Brown as the next UK PM, the "Cameron bounce" has not benefited Goldie's beleaguered Scottish Tory party. Although Tory MSPs claim to have embraced devolution, they have still not embraced the voting system by which the Scottish Parliament is elected. As Struan Stevenson MEP pointed out in an article in The Herald last year, it is the only party going into the Holyrood elections with the slogan "vote for us, we want to be in opposition"! Albeit now Annabel Goldie has refined this message to "principled opposition", it still looks as if the Scottish Tories are determined to prop up a minority administration rather than actively seek power in a coalition.

Clearly, propping up a lame-duck Lab/Lib coalition that has effectively lost the election next May, would not be popular with voters seeking change. Nor will it be applauded by David Cameron, who will hardly enthuse about his party keeping Labour in power in Scotland while he seeks to oust it from power in England.

[That is what they WOULD do though, their attachment to the Union Jack is much stronger than any interest in democracy in Scotland- JOE]

Far better, then, that Goldie should bite the bullet and join a rainbow coalition with the Nats and Greens. This would provide the Scottish Tories with a meaningful role. Not only would they be in power, but they would be the guardians of the Union, threatening to bring down the coalition if any attempt were made at wrecking Scotland's traditional partnership within the UK.

Of course, the Tories would have to agree to the referendum on independence, but they would do so on the condition that they would use their ministerial positions and influence to campaign for a No vote. Also, they would insist such a referendum could only be con-sultative. There could never be a Referendum Bill, as constitutional affairs are reserved. Indeed, even the funding of a consultative referendum could be challenged in the courts. In the unlikely event that a majority of Scots voted for independence in any referendum, Gordon Brown, assuming he is by then Prime Minister, would face a classic political dilemma.

If he acceded to the demands of a majority of Scots and allowed Scotland to become an independent nation, it would destroy his own career, abolish his own con-stituency and deny Labour the chance ever again to form a government at Westminster, so reliant is it on the army of MPs elected in Scottish seats. On the other hand, if he ignored the result and refused to acknowledge the desire for independence, he could risk fomenting civil unrest in Scotland.

Exciting stuff, and it is ironic that the Scottish Tories may end up hold-ing the jackets during this classic con- frontation. Let's hope that Annabel Goldie's principled opposition melds into a bid for power. There is no-one else that we can rely on to save the UK from political disintegration.

ThinkScotland is a new right-of-centre online think-tank, chaired by Scottish global entrepreneur Robert Kilgour, focusing on European affairs from a Scottish perspective.