Blow for Labour as poll puts SNP ahead

[Excellent! JOE]

PETER MACMAHON (Scotsman)

LABOUR'S ambition of retaining power at Holyrood suffered a severe setback last night after the Scottish National Party took the lead in an opinion poll for the first time since the 2003 elections.

A survey of voting intentions by the Ipsos MORI organisation revealed a massive swing to the SNP in both the constituency and list sections of the Holyrood voting system. In just three months, Labour has slipped from a 14-point lead over the SNP to being two points behind them. Just 28 per cent of voters said they would back Labour in a Holyrood election compared with 30 per cent who opted for the SNP.

In the second, list vote, Labour's support is now 26 per cent, down from 33 per cent, while the SNP commands the support of 28 per cent of voters, up from 23 per cent, giving them a two-point lead.

The poll, which surveys voters across Scotland every three months, found a similar pattern for Westminster voting intentions. Labour dropped from 44 per cent in the January to March period to 36 per cent in the April to June survey.

Alex Salmond, the SNP leader, claimed yesterday that the figures showed that Scotland was at a "political tipping point". Speaking after he had unveiled his party's list candidates for the elections, he added: "The SNP remains in a neck-and-neck contest with Labour for political leadership of Scotland next year.

"We'll win this contest, firstly by working harder than our political opponents and secondly by presenting our positive vision of a new Scotland. Scotland is a country with great potential, but we are being failed by the washed out Labour/Liberal Democrat government in Edinburgh."

If the poll figures were repeated at the election in May, Labour and the SNP would have about 40 seats each.

Labour last night tried to play down the findings, although they will send shockwaves through the party, which fears that it could suffer as a result of the growing unpopularity of Tony Blair's government at Westminster.

A Labour spokesman said: "The voters face a real choice at the next election between a nationalist party committed to the damaging policy of independence or a Labour Party who will invest in schools and hospitals and take tough action on crime and anti-social behaviour. Independence would be a hammer blow to the Scottish economy and destroy Labour's strong economic progress and investment in public services."

Labour also tried to minimise the damage the poll might do to the party by trying to discredit the survey. It claimed the small sample size of under 500 electors who were certain to vote raised questions about the "robustness" of the findings. However, Labour strategists will see the poll as confirming the trends in voter opinion that have shown up in their own private polling.

The result will come as a disappointment to both the Liberal Democrats, who have hopes of exploiting Labour's unpopularity, and the Scottish Conservatives.

Although it showed the Lib Dems at 19 per cent in the constituency vote, compared with 17 per cent three months ago, and up one percentage point to 19 per cent in the list vote, the party would have hoped for a bigger boost from its by-election victory in Dunfermline and West Fife in February. The Tories were up one percentage point to 15 per cent in the constituency vote and remained at 16 per cent for the list vote.

The Scottish Socialist Party share of support was down from 3 to 1 per cent in the list vote projections, whereas the Greens, who only stand in the second voting list, rose from 4 to 6 per cent.

Mark Ballard, a Green MSP, welcomed the survey, saying: "As environmental issues have risen up the political agenda, voters are clearly turning to the party that offers the clearest solutions to the environmental crisis.

"Greens are also being increasingly recognised for our work in the Scottish Parliament on social justice and sustainable economic development, demonstrating that we are serious about our role in the new politics of Scotland. "This new opinion poll shows Greens have staying power and look forward to another success in 2007."

http://news.scotsman.com/index.cfm?id=959122006